site.btaCentral Bank Projects 1.9% GDP Growth for 2022

In its Macroeconomic Forecast quarterly publication, released on Wednesday, the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) projects this country's GDP at 1.9% for 2022, 1.7% for 2023, and 3.7% for 2024.

The Forecast is based on data current as of June 24 and uses assumptions of commodity price fluctuations by June 10.

The central bank's baseline scenario is for 14.7% inflation in 2022 because of the more expensive energy resources and raw materials. The BNB inflation forecast varies widely, from 11.4 to 22.2%, on account of the major fluctuations of international raw-material prices and the war in Ukraine.

The central bank expects employment to increase by 0.8% in 2022 and by 0.3% in 2023.

The natural gas price will be rising on an annual basis until the end of December 2022, and crude oil will be appreciating until the end of March 2023, the analysis says. After that energy prices will ease but will still stay above their 2021 levels, the experts point out.

"EU Member States are increasingly unlikely to have their energy demand met in the winter months, which poses risks to the economic activity in the countries in our region," the forecast says.