site.btaPolling Agency Expects Low Voter Turnout at October 2 Snap Elections

Voter turnout in the upcoming elections will likely remain around the low levels recorded in November 2021, and with such a scenario the mobilisation of the hardcore electorate will be key, according to a Market Links survey into electoral attitudes.

The study was implemented jointly by Market Links and bTV and was conducted between 27 August and 3 September among 1,067 adult respondents using personal interviews and an online survey. The data and the analysis are published on the website of the polling agency.

Greater voter turnout in the October 2 snap elections has the potential to change the balance of power, especially between GERB-UDF and Continue Change. While GERB appears to have solid support and limited growth potential, Continue the Change can expect a more substantial shift both upward and downward.

Market Links notes that the official election campaign is in its early stages and currently electoral attitudes show no significant changes compared to the last few months, but potential for the undeclared and hidden vote to have a more serious impact on the distribution of power remains significant.

Some 16.4% of all respondents and 22.9% of voters would vote for GERB-UDF, 11.9% of all respondents and 17.8% of voters would vote for Continue the Change, 8.1% of respondents and 10.9% of voters would vote for the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). The Movement for Rights and Freedoms would get the vote of 8.8% of all respondents and 10.9% of voters, Democratic Bulgaria - 5.1% of respondents and 8.1% of voters, Vazrazhdane - 6.3% of all respondents and 7.6%. Some 3.7% of all respondents and 4.7% of voters would vote for Bulgarian Rise, 3.2% of all respondents and 3.8% of voters would vote for There is Such a People. 

The socio-political and economic situation in the country does not give much cause for widespread optimism. Four in five Bulgarian citizens assess negatively the country's development.

The public narrative of chaos, uncertainty and severe winter aggravate these attitudes and displace a number of socially significant issues, reducing the pre-election political debate to a discussion of potential existential threats, analysts say.

Already with the inauguration of the caretaker cabinet, President Rumen Radev defined its main goal as fighting the chaos in the energy sector. A month later, the caretaker government and the prime minister managed to win the trust of only about 20% of Bulgarians.  By comparison, the first caretaker cabinet in 2021 under Prime Minister Stefan Yanev had 42% approval after a month in office. 

The cabinet's actions, as a consequence of the political line imposed by the President, negatively affect his own public image as the most approved politician in the last few years. In February, 55% of citizens declared trust in Rumen Radev, while in August this share was 43%. The most serious loss of trust is reported among the supporters of Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria, but also among BSP supporters. The latter can also be attributed to the apparent conflict between BSP leader Kornelia Ninova and the head of State, which has gone on to some of the personal appointments in the caretaker cabinet, the polling agency said. On the other hand, over the past four months President Radev has become more acceptable for Vazrazhdane's and GERB's voters, which is explained by his criticism of the previous cabinet, Continue the Change and its leaders, the analysis says.

The majoritarian element in the current campaign seems to be a factor of diminishing weight in the choice of political representation, Market Links reports. Despite the apparent differences between the individual leaders, none of them currently show the potential to significantly change the distribution of political influence. Within this context, a more significant role of parties can be expected, the analysts say.

The poll also found a drop in trust in Stefan Yanev from 28% in April to 16% in August. Vazrazhdane leader Kostadin Kostadinov, who was supported by 19% of Bulgarians in April, is now supported by 13%.

The momentum in support for the parties that made up the ruling coalition in the regular cabinet is still reflected in the trust in the leaders of Continue the Change, Kiril Petkov and Assen Vassilev, as well as the co-chair of Democratic Bulgaria, Hristo Ivanov.