site.btaNext Parliament Will Be Highly Fragmented - Poll

The upcoming elections fall in an extremely negative context of events, which forms the feeling that little or nothing depends on the vote. This is one of the conclusions of a poll conducted by ESTAT, published on Friday.

The nationally representative survey was carried out through direct personal interviews on tablets among 1,005 adult Bulgarian citizens selected by gender, age and type of settlement. It was carried out from 10 to 17 September with own funding.

The study shows that the next parliament will be highly fragmented, whether it will consist of 6, 7 or 8 parties. GERB's opponents from the previous regular government will be far from a majority, and it will be very difficult for Boyko Borissov's party, even as the first political force, to find acceptable partners to form a cabinet, the ESTAT agency notes.

In the ranking of the political forces there is complete clarity only regarding the first place of GERB. The second position of Continue the Change (CC), according to the data, also seems secure, but a loss of support for them in the last days of the campaign, as well as a hidden vote or a surge towards Vazrazhdane, could lead to a reshuffle.

The messages of the political parties are weak, the campaign is sluggish and, as a consequence, voters will vote not for the best, but for the least bad alternative, the survey further shows. According to the agency, this will inevitably affect turnout, which is already trending negatively - from 50% in April last year to 40% in November. The data suggests a turnout of between 2.2 and 2.5 million voters, which is between 33 and 38% of all eligible voters, including those voting abroad.

The threshold for entering the next parliament will also be record low - between 90,000 and 100,000 votes. The highest participation is expected from people aged 50 to 60, university graduates, managers, and residents of settlements other than Sofia.

According to the data, 70% of voters have firmly decided whom to support. Their share is significantly above the average among people over 50, working people, pensioners and residents of the capital. Just over a quarter have not yet made their choice, but the likelihood that most of them will vote at all, or that they will concentrate their vote mainly in one political force, is only theoretical, according to the findings of the survey by the ESTAT agency.