site.btaRostourism's Recommendations Not Expected to Affect Bulgaria Substantially

Bulgaria will not be affected substantially by Russia's Federal Agency for Tourism (Rostourism) urging travel agents to consider replacing Bulgaria with other destinations, Rumen Draganov, Director of the Institute for Analyses and Assessments in Tourism, said in an interview for BTA. Draganov expects fewer than 50,000 Russian tourists to visit Bulgaria in 2022, which has been the annual level of the COVID years.

Rostourism's recommendation came after Bulgaria closed its airspace to Russian carriers and then Russia did the same with respect to Bulgaria.

According to Draganov, the situation will be almost the same with the tourism markets of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, which have all but stopped sending tourists to Bulgaria due to the pandemic. The current critical situation stemming from the war in Ukraine will affect Bulgarian businesses' expectations of post-pandemic recovery rather than any other aspects of the tourist industry, the expert argued.

He predicted a more dramatic decline in tourists from Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway, whose markets contracted considerably after 2015.

No major changes are expected in the number of tourist visits from Romania and other countries neighbouring Bulgaria. Observers expect a resumption of charter flights from Germany, the United Kingdom, Poland and the Czech Republic, considering that early Bulgaria bookings have increased in those countries.

Draganov recalled that over half a million Russian nationals spent their holidays in Bulgaria annually before 2014. After the annexation of Crimea, their number fell to 150,000-160,000 and decreased further to 50,000 in the COVID year 2020. Based on the 2021 level of 130,000 and an expected resumption of charter flights after the pandemic, professionals estimated that between 150,000 and 170,000 Russian tourists would visit Bulgaria in 2022, bringing the situation back to the 2014-2015 level. As things stand now, however, Bulgaria is more likely to slip to the levels of the last couple of years, which means that fewer than 50,000 Russian tourists will come to this country in 2022, Draganov said. He expects Russians to travel to Bulgaria via Istanbul, Dubai or other locations and to be mainly people who possess real estate or have other business interests in Bulgaria.

In the case of the Ukrainian market, the damage will be considerable, Draganov said. Between 450,000 and 500,000 tourists from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova visit Bulgaria annually. Under the circumstances, it is impossible to make a forecast for 2022, but in any case, about 90 per cent of that number are expected to give up spending their holidays in Bulgaria, the expert said.

He cited data of the Russian Embassy in Bulgaria showing that about 1,500 Russian tourists are currently stranded in Bulgaria as Russian airlines are banned from landing at, taking off from, or overflying its territory.