site.btaCentral Bank Projects Growth in External Demand for Bulgarian Goods in H1 of 2022

In the first and second quarters of 2022, external demand for Bulgarian goods and services is projected to grow on an annual basis, and its rate is expected to slow down gradually compared to the last quarter of 2021, according to the Economic Review quarterly posted on the website of the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) on Wednesday.

Between January 2021 and November 2021, the total current and capital account surplus of Bulgaria decreased from the same period of 2020, mainly due to a higher trade deficit. In the first half of 2022, the total current and capital account surplus is expected to increase as a percentage of GDP, compared to the end of 2021, the central bank's experts said.

In the first half of 2022, real GDP growth is expected to slow down from the second half of 2021. The contribution of private consumption is likely to decline, while that of fixed capital investment is expected to rise amid the strengthened investment activity of the government.

BNB expects inflation to continue rising in the first half of 2022. There are risks of a stronger price increase due to possible changes in the regulated prices of electricity, water and sewerage services, and heating once the government's moratorium imposed on them in December 2021 ends on March 31.