site.btaBulgaria’s Gross Electricity Consumption to Not Exceed 43,298 GWh by 2031, System Operator Forecasts

The gross electricity consumption in Bulgaria will not exceed 43,298 GWh by 2031, according to a draft plan for the development of the country’s electricity transmission network in the 2022-2031 period. The document has been elaborated by an expert team of the Electricity System Operator (ESO). 

Based on the current data, in 2031 the absolute maximum electricity load is expected to be 7,670 MW and the maximum load per average workday, 7,130 MW.

The forecast for the development of the gross national electricity consumption takes into account the estimates for the period until 2050 of the European Commission, the Sustainable Energy Development Agency, the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, and the Finance Ministry (regarding GDP). 

In accordance with the investment intentions for the 2022-2031 period, it is planned to build 5,881 MW capacities, of which 4,858 MW are renewable energy sources. The share of energy from hydroelectric plants in electricity consumption is expected to reach up to 30 per cent in 2031.

The draft plan envisages new nuclear capacities in the 2030-2040 period. Even if such a project gets launched in 2022, it cannot be put into operation before 2032, which goes beyond the period covered by the document. Since the scale of these capacities is concentrated, and not decentralized like that of hydroelectric plants, their effect on the development of the electricity transmission network is significant and requires continuous pre-project research and coordination procedures, the ESO said.

Capacity balances show drastic disparity in the options for meeting domestic demand and possibly exporting electricity. In the winter season, it will not be possible to export electricity, and in some years it will even be necessary to resort to all available sources of additional services and/or electricity import. In the summer season, the possible export will depend on hydroelectric plants’ production, the draft plan shows.

According to ESO, the implementation of the plan for the electricity transmission network’s development until 2031 will provide the necessary security of electricity transmission in case of normal and repair schemes, including the necessary electricity exchange with neighbouring countries.