site.btaBulgaria’s GDP to Grow by 2.8% in 2022, EBRD Forecasts

In its latest regional economic report, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts a GDP growth of 2.8 per cent for Bulgaria this year. This is a revision by minus 1.6 per cent from the EBRD’s previous forecast in November 2021.

The change from the previously forecast GDP growth of 4.4 per cent is due to the expected economic fallout from the war in Ukraine. A smaller GDP growth than the one forecast in November 2021 is expected for the whole region of Southeastern Europe: 2.8 per cent, down from November’s 4.2 per cent.

Last year, Bulgaria’s GDP grew by 4.2 per cent, the report notes. In 2023, the EBRD forecasts a GDP growth by 3.6 per cent, or slightly below the 3.9 per cent expected for Southeastern Europe. 

The EBRD expects Bulgaria to experience a delay in foreign direct investment as a result of the country’s closeness to Ukraine, especially in the context of a militarization of the Black Sea. The drop in Russian tourism would notably affect Bulgaria, which received 450,000 Russian tourists in 2019, the report reads.