site.btaCentral Bank Projects GDP to Grow by 2,8% in 2022, 0.1% in 2023

In its quarterly economic outlook, published on Friday, the Bulgarian National Bank projects Bulgaria’s real GDP growth to slow down to 2,8% in 2022 and to 0.1% in 2023.
Annual inflation measured through the Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices is projected to reach 14.9% at the end of 2022 and although it will slow down to 4.1% at the end of 2023 , the average annual inflation will remain high at 7.6%. At the end of 2023 inflation may slow down to 3.4%.

In 2023 economic activity will be driven by the absorption of money under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan.

In 2024 GDP will grow to 3.4%.

In 2022, economic activity will be hampered by decreased exports and slower growth of private consumption due to inflation. This dynamic will be only partially compensated by public consumption and the accumulation of reserves in the economy due to inflation and uncertainty in global supply chains.

BNB’s outlook about the key macroeconomic indicators was prepared by September 30 and is based on estimations about the development of the international conjuncture and the dynamics of the prices of the basic commodities on the international markets by September 9. Escalation of the war in Ukraine accounts for greater than usual uncertainty to the indicator estimations.
The basic scenario does not include negative effects on the Bulgarian economy which could arise as a result of a possible shortage of natural gas in the country. The outlook does not take into account the potential effects on the political uncertainty in Bulgarian on economic activity an inflation.

The central bank expects that external demand of Bulgarian goods and services will grow by 2,9% in 2022, followed by a decline of 0.1% in 2023 and recovery to 4.1% in 2024.
The prices of raw materials on the international markets continue to be characterized by great fluctuations and futures prices suggest that for the most raw materials they will remain over their 2021 levels.