site.bta1.2 Mln Hectares to Be Put under Wheat

Bulgaria's three main autumn-sown cereal and oil-bearing crops: wheat, barley and rapeseed, are to be planted on 1.43 million hectares of fields for the 2023 harvest. This is 1% more than in the previous campaign, resulting mainly from an increase in wheat acreage, the Centre for Agri-policy Analysis (CAPA) says in its monthly bulletin for September 2022.

Rapeseed acreage is expected to decrease. Due to its lower cost-effectiveness compared to other crops and its vulnerability in the winter, rapeseed, like barley, will have its acreage shrinking somewhat to 115,000 ha. Barley acreage will also measure 115,000 ha, and wheat will be planted on 1.2 million ha.

CAPA estimates that the area harvested for maize this year will total 570,000 ha. The maize yield is expected to amount to 6 tonnes/ha, while the JRC-Mars projection has slipped further down to 5.95 t/ha. The maize crop is forecast to amount to between 3.3 million t and 3.45 million t with 47% probability. There is 14% probability that the crop will exceed that level by up to 10%, and 33% probability that it will fall short of it by up to 10%.

The area harvested for sunflower is expected to measure 840,000 ha and the yield will average 2.3 t/ha. CAPA estimates with 55% probability that the 2022/2023 sunflower crop will be between 1.8 million t and 1.95 million t. There is 14% probability that the crop will exceed that level by up to 10%, and 28% probability that it will fall short of it by up to 10%. The JRC-Mars sunflower yield forecast has been lowered to 2.21 t/ha.

Bulgarian producer prices of maize and sunflower will go up in the coming months. This will happen gradually unless complications occur due to factors beyond the agricultural markets.

CAPA reports that the decline of FOB prices from Russia began to slow at the end of September after several weeks of steady fall due to the coming of the new crops. The most recent price levels reported in the monthly CAPA bulletin are: USD 330/t for bread wheat, USD 290/t for barley, USD 285/t for wheat forage, and USD 310/t for maize. Sunflower seed from Ukraine is offered at about USD 560/t (FOB), while sunflower oil from Russia costs USD 1,250/t (FOB).

Ukraine almost restored its export volumes to the pre-war levels, with 4 million tonnes of cereal and oil-bearing crops exported in September through the port of Odessa alone. According to data from the Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry, the country's fields planted with rapeseed to be harvested next year measure 960,000 ha, down from 1.4 million ha a year ago and close to the pre-2020 level.

The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil plummeted to USD 950/t at the end of September, which was 12% down in a month and 40% down in a quarter. Forecasts of abundant crops are the main reason for the falling prices of palm oil and soybean oil.

The CAPA bulletin is published with the support of the America for Bulgaria Foundation.