site.btaChina Opting for More Flexible Stance in Projects with Bulgarian Partners, Researcher Finds

Bulgaria does not have a clearly defined policy towards China, Vladimir Shopov found in a US State Department-funded research project on how China competes for influence in Bulgaria.

At a virtual round-table discussion on Thursday, Shopov, who is a visiting fellow with the Asia Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, presented his findings which are based on interviews with 142 current and former politicians, business executives and academics.

Until recently China used to pay more attention to Greece, Serbia, Hungary, North Macedonia and other countries of Southeastern Europe. Over the last couple of years, the Chinese Government started to show systematic interest in Bulgarian ports and railway infrastructure, seeing the country as a natural extension of the transitional route through the South Caucasus, but no substantial developments have ensued so far.

China has been unable to initiate significant energy and infrastructure projects because of the cumbersome requirements it sets, such as government guarantees, non-disclosure contractual clauses, and limiting procurement procedures to Chinese counterparties, which is against the EU acquis. Thus, China finds its easier to exert influence on third countries.

Other obstacles include Russia's dominance in the energy sector and local lobbies' control over the infrastructure. 

Bulgaria's EU membership and the concomitant legal restrictions have also slowed down the growth of Chinese influence here. Additionally, this country's access to the huge EU financing pools lessens dependence on foreign financing, compared to Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.  

In a bid to overcome these hurdles, China has adopted a multi-track strategy for Bulgaria, engaging state and non-state actors at the national and subnational level. Beijing has significantly expanded its cooperation with Sofia in culture, education, agriculture, research, public procurement, and e-governance.

China is now opting for a more flexible stance, willing to comply with Bulgarian and EU requirements without exclusivity in project implementation. It has formed partnerships with other companies and has even accepted junior positions in various projects. One example is the China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) which, in partnership with the Trace Group Hold, has won a 730-million-euro EU-funded contract to modernize the Ihtiman-Kotsenets railway line. In another case in point, China has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Bulgarian Construction Chamber.

The Asian country has drawn up a detailed map of all Bulgarian research institutions that might be useful to its influence expansion and is already partnering with the Agricultural University in Plovdiv, the Institute of Agriculture in Kyustendil, and the Institute of Viticulture and Enology in Pleven. Shopov warned that some of these agreements might be giving too much power to the Chinese parties.

Several Bulgarian cities are willing to implement smart city projects in partnership with China but risk having huge amounts of data gathered with no regulation and being stored and processed non-transparently, as is the case with Belgrade.

The researcher listed information (narratives, articles, images), disinformation, and "non-information" (the deliberate withholding of information from the public) as three tools that China uses to further its goals.

Asked by BTA how Chinese tendency to cooperate with Russia is likely to impact the Asian country's position in Bulgaria and Europe, Shopov said it was important to look into the areas of Sino-Russian cooperation, the most obvious one being nuclear energy. At first, China was willing to share in the Belene N-Plant project by investing and providing technology of its own. Once the Chinese realized that such direct participation was impossible, they agreed to cooperate with Russia in that project. According to the researcher, considering the ongoing war in Ukraine, a successful bid to further develop Belene with China and/or Russia is most unlikely.

China-Russia cooperation is more relevant to Serbia, Montenegro and the rest of the Western Balkans which cannot rely on EU funding and are thus more susceptible to the influence of those two countries. Bulgarian institutions should avoid pursuing inconsistent and uninformed policies lest they fall victim to unprofitable foreign partnerships, Shopov said at the end of the round-table discussion.