site.btaMedia Review: April 29

Bulgarian Assistance for Ukraine, Russian Gas Cutoff

Most of the electronic and paper news outlets quote Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov who Thursday promised to aid Ukraine economically during his visit to Kyiv where he met with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Petkov said that Ukraine is ready to supply electricity to Bulgaria and cooperate in the transfer of natural gas. He pointed out that Ukraine can also give Bulgaria additional electricity, while Bulgaria will provide Ukraine with the fresh capital that it badly needs. He said that Bulgaria will help Ukrainian electricity reach the rest of the Balkans as well. In his words, his country will be happy to turn Varna into a logistical hub for Ukrainian grain and sunflower, which can be redistributed from there.

Speaking to Nova TV, Prime Minister Petkov restated the main topics of discussion during his meeting with Zelenskyy. Petkov said that Ukraine will send experts to Bulgaria next week to explain how Ukrainian electricity can reach the Bulgarian market via Romania. Bulgarian construction companies will help Ukraine rebuild its destroyed cities and especially those where Bulgarian minority groups live in.

Footage from a bTV correspondent in Kyiv shows that the Ukrainian capital was bombed before the Bulgarian delegation headed by Prime Minister Kiril Petkov had left the city. The correspondent asked if it finally became clear during the visit what kind of assistance exactly Bulgaria will be providing Ukraine, and he said it appears that what Bulgaria would do is repair Ukrainian military equipment.

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In an exclusive message to Bulgarian politicians on bTV, Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko said: “Can you imagine someone bombing Sofia and destroying your home? You cannot eat your cake and have it too. Things are black and white now: you are either on Ukraine’s side or on the side of the Russian aggressor. Any business relations with Russia mean support for war and for the Russian army which destroys buildings and kills civilians. You have to take a side.”

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Quoting The New York Times, Sega reports that Bulgaria is exporting arms and munitions to Ukraine via the American Ultra Defense Corp company, together with five other countries. The original article is based on information obtained on-site in Poland and Ukraine, and after investigating the activity of the Pentagon and the company in question, including interviews with Ultra Defense Corp representatives. Sega also quotes the Executive Director of the state-owned military equipment supplier Kintex, Alexander Mihailov, who was replaced by order of Economy Minister Korneliya Ninova. Mihailov also claims that Bulgarian weapons are exported to Ukraine through middlemen in Poland and Czechia.

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On bTV’s morning programme, political analyst Evgenii Dainov said the delegation’s visit to Ukraine was unprecedented when it comes to the resolve of the people on the delegation and the clarity of their position. Daynov was in bTV’s studio together with another political analyst, Rossen Karadimov, and journalist Assen Grigorov. Rossen Dimov questioned the statement of the government, that Bulgaria was prepared for the suspension of Russian gas supplies. If it had been, why was the Chiren gas storage facility almost empty, he asks. He also said that while some may be thrilled about the severance of ties with Russia in the gas sector, this is certainly very bad for the Bulgarian industry. In a nutshell, the three analysts disagree strongly on whether or not the Russian gas cutoff will be a disaster for the Bulgarian economy. Grigorov also said that the crisis helped disprove several myths, the first being that Bulgaria cannot do without Russian gas or Russian tourists.

On bTV, former environment minister Julian Popov said that Bulgaria should rely mostly on itself, as it tries to handle the current gas supply crisis, and find long-term solutions, but with the support of the EU, especially legal support. He suggested that this country should “retaliate” and reconsider the positions of Lukoil and TurkStream in Bulgaria. They should be subject to due diligence so as to minimize or stop the flow of Russian fuel, and the due diligence must be performed by renowned international consultants.

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On BNT, the chair of the Sofia Municipal Council, Georgi Georgiev, said that the Sofia heating utility has gas stock to last it until the end of May and after that it can switch to the more polluting gas oil. The Sofia public transport company also has fuel until the end of May and if the situation does not change, it will have to switch to holiday schedules with much fewer buses. Georgiev went on to explain why the government should subsidize the energy prices.

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Speaking on Nova News TV, former Bulgargaz Executive Director Kiril Temelkov assured that there will be enough natural gas to cover the total consumption in Bulgaria and people should not worry about this (on Tuesday Gazprom discontinued the country’s gas supplies). According to Temelkov, gas prices in Bulgaria will grow by 20-25% and would not reach 40% as it is speculated. The government should continue negotiating gas supply agreements with as many sides as possible, he said, adding that EU’s position and sanctions against Russia are unclear and every Member State can interpret the actions in its own way, which is a something that must change. Europe should speak with a single voice and say whether paying Russian gas in rubles is a problem or not.

Politics

In a Trud interview, former caretaker prime minister and former defence minister Stefan Yanev speaks about the creation of his new party, principles of political pluralism, the ongoing natural gas issues, the citizen’s fatigue of the ideologies of left and right political spectrums, and NATO’s identity as a political-military alliance, among others. According to Yanev, Bulgarians are expecting early elections, as they are disappointed with the lack of vision and decisions by the government, whose actions are chaotic, he says.

In a Mediapool.bg interview, political science experts Parvan Simeonov and Dimitar Ganev say that, most likely, sending weapons to Ukraine would not split the four-party ruling coalition but lifting the veto on North Macedonia’s EU integration process would, if done with no clear steps by Skopje towards resolving the issues with Sofia. According to Simeonov, the Continue the Change party stepped out of its balancer role and started taking decisions. Sending weapons to Ukraine would be a symbolic act, as Bulgaria already exports weapons and will not bring drastic changes in citizen attitudes. However, Bulgarians will not compromise on is the issue with North Macedonia as it is a significant problem for Bulgaria, dating a hundred years back, and Skopje has not done much to resolve it. If Continue the Change lifts the veto, their chances of remaining in power are minimal, he adds. Ganev agrees that it is the North Macedonia  situation which may lead to much more severe destabilization in the ruling coalition, rather than the issue of sending weapons to Ukraine.

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On BNT, political analysts Antoaneta Hristova and Tatyana Burudjieva slammed the government for acting inadequately. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) is in a weak position and unrecognizable: ask somebody in the street and the only BSP official they will be able to name will be leader Korneliya Ninova, said the analysts. They were also asked to comment on frictions between the institutions in Bulgaria, especially between the President and the government. The new government “opened Pandora’s box but are unable to offer any solutions to the curses inside”.

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On bTV, Capital Weekly editor-in-chief Alexei Lazarov said a lot of parties are wooing the “patriotic” electorate because they see a potential there. It is also mainly for this reason that BSP has taken a firm stance against sending military aid to Ukraine: they believe that much of their voters are anti-war- and pro-Russian-minded. This position, however, is largely declarative, as it is no secret that Bulgaria has provided much military aid to Ukraine in the early days of the war and BSP did nothing about it even though BSP’s leader Korneliya Ninova is also acting Economy Minister and in charge of military export. Lazarov believes that the government coalition will continue to exist and stay together, largely because there is no alternative. 

Lazarov believes that the government has a plan how to handle the gas crisis. "An interesting question is whether Russia stopped the gas or Bulgaria somehow prompted that. It seems there is a mechanism whereby the countries can make payments in a way that leaves Russia happy without violating the sanctions, which is what Germany and Austria are likely doing [and Bulgaria chose not to do]. If that was the case, it would be news of near-historic magnitude because Bulgaria has been dependent on Russian energy sources for many decades," he said.

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On Bulgarian National Radio (BNR), anthropology professor and political analyst Vassil Garnizov said that the natural gas and weapons for Ukraine won’t bring the government down, nor will the issue of the EU accession of North Macedonia. President Rumen Radev “will have to play through some political party”. The way he is behaving, he only makes stronger the bond between Socialist leader Ninova and the rest of the government coalition partners and she will make sure this government survives at least until the local elections next year because she needs these elections. There are way too many pretenders in the political space that Ninova currently represents (“with Radev breathing in her neck, former caretaker Prime Minister Stefan Yanev preparing to establish his own party, ABV leader Roumen Petkov trying to stand out on the political stage, just like Maya Manolova and Tatyana Doncheva) and it would be reckless for her to leave the coalition and go to snap general elections, said Garnizov. He also noted that Radev would not have been President without Petkov and Vassilev, who were ministers in his caretaker government. They helped his re-election as much as he helped their entry into Parliament. Petkov and Vassilev have had too much of Radev’s patronizing, he added.

Economy

On its frontpage, 24 Chasa writes that Ukrainian refugees who have entered Bulgaria since the outbreak of the war, spend some BGN 1 million a day, meaning that they spent BGN 30 million in March alone. According to statistics by the Borica payment system which operates with nearly 60% of the banks in Bulgaria, some BGN 10 million have been withdrawn from Ukrainian debit and credit cards and another BGN 8.9 million have been paid at merchant outlets. Taking into account other payment systems, the total amount has reached about BGN 30 million. The number is likely to be much higher, 24 Chasa says, given the fact that a lot of money have been spent in cash and this is difficult to calculate.

The paper also reports that the European Commission paid Bulgaria EUR 148.4 million under the REACT-EU instrument which funds EU Member States who help people fleeing Ukraine. The money is available to cover expenses retroactively as of the start date of the Russian invasion (24 February 2022).

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The new issue of Capital Weekly reports that inflation rate forecasts in Bulgaria are growing pessimistic. The publication quotes data of the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, according to which the annual inflation in Bulgaria is likely to reach 14% exceeding the growth of economy by some 12%. Trud also covers the topic.

Capital Weekly also writes that MPs of the four-party ruling coalition submitted draft amendments to the Obligations and Contracts Act to lower interest on late payments due to the National Revenue Agency. The provisions envisage that interest be based on the Basic Interest Rate plus 4% for persons or 8% for legal persons. Currently, the interest equals Basic Interest Rate plus 10%.

Infrastructure

BNR quotes Deputy Regional Development and Public Works Minister Delyana Ivanova, who said that some BGN 1 billion will be invested in the modernization of water and wastewater systems in six different regions in Bulgaria. The funding comes from the EU Environment Operational Programme. The money will be spent on new pipes, sewer branches, and wastewater treatment plants, among other installations.