site.btaWill Snap Elections Follow Ministerial Arrest in Croatia?

Last weekend, the Croatian political scene was shaken by a corruption investigation. Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic promptly dismissed Construction Minister Darko Horvat and Deputy Prime Minister Boris Milosevic tendered his resignation. What might come next is more government changes or even snap elections.

On Saturday morning, the minister’s home was searched, then he was arrested and later his lawyer said Horvat had been remanded in custody on charges of malfeasance. His client had denied the charges but would remain under arrest for a month for the time being.

Then an announcement appeared on the website of the Croatian anti-corruption watchdog that an investigation of six persons is under way, without their identity being revealed. It says, though, that one of the suspects acted in his capacity as economy minister in 2018, and local media listed the names matching the description. Horvat, then Minister of Economy, Entrepreneurship and Proprietorship, is suspected of authorizing distribution of government subsidies worth some 350,000 euro to companies that were not eligible.

Besides Horvat, Croatian media outlets say his former aide, Ana Mandac, is also under investigation. Deputy Prime Minister Milosevic and several other former and current top officials are charged with instigation of criminal action. 

The prime minister’s first reaction was to call a news conference and urge prosecutors to explain the reasons for the quick arrest of a government minister.

After that, however, it was announced that Plenkovic had fired Horvat.

On Monday, Deputy Prime Minister Boris Milosevic, the only member of the Independent Democratic Serb Party in the coalition government of Plenkovic’s Croatian Democratic Union, handed in his resignation.

Even over the weekend, Plenkovic was quick to underscore that the parliamentary majority was stable and there was no extraordinary situation. If the resignation of Milosevic is accepted, though, there would have to be some changes in the government at least.

Naturally, the opposition was quick to jump to the opportunity. 

The MP for the main opposition Social Democratic Party of Croatia, Misel Jaksic, pointed out today that his formation has already called upon the government to return the mandate to the citizens for new elections to be held.

The MP for We Can!, Sandra Bencic, said on N1 TV that the government was steeped in corruption and that new elections had to be held. The idea for new elections is also supported by representatives of the Bridge [of Independent Lists].

But the former chair of the Conflict of Interest Committee, MP Dalija Oreskovic, believes it would take some more big arrests for the government to be seriously endangered.

Local media criticize Horvat that he had failed in his ministerial obligations for he had not done anything essential for the country’s recovery after the two earthquakes in 2020 and 2021. Slobodna Dalmatija notes that until now Plenkovic had defended him, but the anti-corruption and organized crime watchdog would obviously make the necessary changes in the government in stead of the Prime Minister. 

In this context, political analyst Zarko Puhovski told the HINA news agency the government of Andrej Plenkovic is not threatened if the matter ends with Darko Horvat. This even makes things easier for Plenkovic, for he can rid himself of the worst performing minister, Puhovski thinks.

“If the ongoing events also include Boris Milosevic, then all this will become a serious problem for the government and the ruling coalition. Then snap elections could possibly be discussed, although I still think they are not so imminent,” Puhovski said.

Another political analyst, Favor Genero, told HINA that speculations about snap elections are dangerous on the backdrop of the volatile international situation. He is of the opinion that if there are any signs of corruption whatsoever, the people associated with it should leave immediately, although he also says in this case there is an unusual precedent.

According to political analyst Andelko Milardovic, it would be much smarter on the part of the ruling majority to dissolve on its own, for otherwise events would dissolve it.

Andrej Plenkovic won a second term in 2020, although during his first term seven ministers left the government over claims of fraud and conflicts of interest, Bloomberg notes.

In the present situation of a pandemic, energy crisis and high inflation, a large-scale corruption scandal could prove the last drop for Croatians and they may have to go to the polls earlier than planned.