site.btaInside the Balkans: Serbia Elections under Shadow of War in Ukraine

Serbia's April 3 presidential and early parliamentary elections did not bring any surprises. What is new is that several opposition parties, mainly with right leanings, entered the National Assembly (Skupstina) after the electoral threshold was reduced from 5 to 3 per cent and the opposition decided not to boycott the vote.

Although the latter hoped to win in Belgrade, it failed to garner a majority, but the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) will not command a majority in the capital's city hall either.

Political analysts say that both the war in Ukraine and the pro-Russian attitude of the Serbian public influenced the election outcome. Speaking to the Politika daily, Ipsos Strategic Marketing consultant Srdjan Bogosavljevic outlined several circumstances peculiar to the elections in Serbia, mostly linked to the situation in Ukraine. A large proportion of people in Serbia value Russia highly, and the country depends on Russian natural gas, he said. The good showing of the pro-Russian parties speaks volumes, Bogosavljevic said.

Representatives of environmental movements also found their way into parliament, as there were massive environmental rallies before the elections.

Belgrade's media note that the elections fell short of the opposition's expectations. Serbian President Vucic himself garnered many more votes than he did in 2017. They also remarked on the fact that the rural population generally voted for SNS and Vucic. Observers say the war in Ukraine and the overall insecurity in Serbia made people vote for a system guaranteeing social security.

The war and all its political and economic implications overshadowed any other subjects that would have drawn the public's attention to the election campaign in normal circumstances. Thus the global geopolitical insecurity shifted political preferences in Serbia to the right.

The extreme right Serbian Oathkeepers Party and the Dveri-Movement for Restoration of the Kingdom of Serbia coalition won 10 seats each in the 250-seat parliament. Ivica Dacic's Socialist Party of Serbia has 32 seats, the same number as after the 2020 elections. Although the result of the Serbian Progressive Party dropped from 188 to 121 seats, it still is the main political force in the country.

The ultrantionalist Serbian Radical Party led by Vojislav Seselj failed to clear the electoral threshold, after which he declared he was withdrawing from politics, but observers say that Dveri, the Hope for Serbia (NADA) and the Oathkeepers could replace him very successfully.

The positive outcome of these elections is that now the United for Victory of Serbia coalition is in the Skupstina with the second largest group of 36 MPs. On the other hand, 90 per cent of the members of the new parliament support wholeheartedly Vladimir Putin and his actions, including the aggression against Ukraine, according to analysts.