site.btaAnkara's Mediation of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: A Prop to Restore Erdogan's Image at Home?

On an international plane, both Turkey and Israel are trying to mediate in the resolution of the bloody Russia-Ukraine conflict. On the domestic stage, though, some commentators say President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government is literally "clinging to the role of mediator", mostly to restore its prestige in domestic politics.

In recent months, support for Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been on the downslide, mainly due to the country's economic problems. Last year, the Turkish lira suffered a grave blow and inflation reached levels unheard of in recent years, with the Turkish Statistical Institute reporting 61.14 per cent inflation in March - the highest annual rate in the last 20 years. Unofficial figures, though, show that inflation in the country exceeded 100 per cent.

The surge in prices is attributed to the economic crisis, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the Russian invasion of Ukraine led to a spike in gas, oil and grain prices.

With all this in mind, last month AKP's support dropped to 32 per cent and the margin between that party and the main opposition Kemalist Republican People's Party (CHP) shrank to less than 2.0 per cent. A survey of the Yoneylem polling agency showed that 30.3 per cent of respondents supported CHP.

The meetings of the leaders of the six opposition parties in Turkey continue against this backdrop. These, including CHP and the Good Party, united for joint action to reinstate the parliamentary system of governance. This week Good Party leader Meral Aksener yet again called for snap elections, pointing out that they were "no longer a choice, but a necessity".

On the international stage, Turkey is trying to play one of the leading roles at the moment - that of a peace mediator in the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv. Ankara maintains very good relations with both, and at the onset of the conflict Erdogan declared he would not give up on either Russia or Ukraine. Turkey organized two exceedingly important meetings between the parties to the conflict in Antalya and Istanbul. 

Comments following the meetings, including "Erdogan is a world-class leader" or "even if not 6 but 60 parties were to unite, it would be impossible to oust Erdogan from power," actually show that the Turkish leader's administration needs the role of a mediator to halt the dwindling of his prestige at home. As with the conflicts in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh before, the power-holders in Turkey obviously want to use foreign policy as a tool to tip the balance in domestic politics in their favour, the opposition Evrensel daily said.

Meanwhile, earlier this month, the Turkish president yet again promised "to protect" the country's citizens from the rising inflation, recalling that the government aimed at ranking the economy among the world's top ten.

High inflation levels and rising prices are not a problem of Turkey alone. Most European countries face a situation even worse than Turkey's, and the authorities in even the most developed countries tell people that their welfare will decline, Erdogan said.

At this stage, though, only time will tell whether Ankara's actions at home and abroad will lead to the desired result of regaining the voters' support.