site.btaIs Turkey's Tourism Winning or Losing from the War in Ukraine?

After two years of the coronavirus pandemic, Turkey's tourism now faces a new challenge: to keep Russian tourists coming and not to let the consequences of the war in Ukraine dampen the upcoming busy tourist season. However, could things develop in such a way that an outflow of Russian holiday makers never materializes and that Turkey's tourism sector even stands to gain from the current situation?

Turkish media reported that in a bid to ensure the problem-free arrival of Russian tourists, a dedicated airline will be set up in the country to fly Russian tourists to Turkish resorts. The airline, called Southwind, has already obtained approval from Turkey's Civil Aviation Administration. Flights are expected to start in the end of May with five Airbus aircraft, the website AirportHaber said. 

HaberTurk for its part said that the aim is to ease air travel for Russians after the sanctions imposed on Moscow following the invasion in Ukraine affected the international flights of airlines registered in Russia, among them air carriers connected with three Turkish tour operators: Coral, Pegasus and Anex Tour. 

Experts warn that the regular flights of Turkish air carriers to Russia will not be sufficient to take on the tourists, added to which is the fact that air fares make holidays more expensive, so that chartered flights will be necessary. 

The new airline for chartered flights to the airport in the Mediterranean region of Antalya, often referred to as the Little Moscow, is not the sole instrument Turkey will use to promote its tourism. 

The Turkish newspaper Sabah reported about a government plan of three points aimed at attracting more Russian holiday makers. One measure is providing loans to Turkish tour operators based in Russia. The financial package totals USD 300 million and will be secured by the Credit Guarantee Fund. Also, big Turkish tour operators in Russia, such as Anex Tour, Coral and Pegasus, have agreed with the national air carrier, Turkish Airlines, to ensure seat capacity for 1.5 million Russian tourists. In addition to this, the Pegasus Airline expects to fly 500,000 Russian passengers to Turkish beach resorts. 

Despite the coronavirus pandemic, last year Turkey received nearly 4.7 million Russian tourists, more than twice as many as in 2020, when the pandemic began and caused a sharp drop in the number of Russian visitors who totaled 2.13 million. Russian arrivals accounted for the highest number of foreign tourists in Turkey in 2021, followed by Germans and Ukrainians. The latter totaled 2 million in 2021, according to official statistics. 

In 2022, Turkey planned to attract 7 million Russians and 3 million Ukrainians, but the war rendered these targets hard to achieve. According to data from the Turkish Tourism Ministry, taken together Russians and Ukrainians account for nearly 30 per cent of all foreign visitors to Turkey. Visitors from other countries can hardly make up for the vacuum created by the expected outflow from these two markets. 

Hamit Kuk, member of the governing board of the Association of Turkish Travel Agencies, believes that Turkey could turn to its advantage Europe's embargo on Russia.

Speaking to the TRT Haber TV, Kuk said that if 2 million Russians usually spend their holidays in Spain and Italy, the current sanctions will make this impossible. If Turkey and Russia solve the transport problem, these Russians could instead spend their holidays in Turkey, he said. 

However, Maya Lomidze, Executive Director of the Association of Tour Operators of Russia, voices doubts that the Russian visitors to Turkey this year will be as many as in 2022. The number of Russian tourists visiting Turkey may fall to 2 million in 2022, which can be considered a "good number" given the changing geopolitical situation, according to Lomidze. Speaking to the Dunya daily, Lomidze said airline transportation is the biggest obstacle for Russian tourists and it should be supported by affordable prices. In her words, a good solution would be if the Turkish government subsidizes regular flights, to make the fares equal to chartered flights. 

The January and February figures of Russian visitors to Turkey augured well for reaching the target of 7 million tourists this year. In the two months before the start of the war in Ukraine, the number of Russian arrivals was 39% higher than the like figure in 2021. However, since the start of the hostilities, things have slowed down. 

Only the actual tourist season will show whether the high expectations for tourism revenue of USD 35 billion this year, compared to USD 24.4 billion last year, will materialize. There is no doubt that the steps the government in Turkey will undertake to attract more visitors from Russia will have a significant role in this.