site.btaTurkiye's 2023: Centenary of the Republic, Year of Fateful Elections

The Turkish Republic, established by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, will mark its 100th birthday on October 29, 2023. Apart from this landmark event, the year will also see presidential and parliamentary elections, in which approximately 58 million voters will decide whether to give yet another term in office to the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been in power for 21 uninterrupted years.

The elections, scheduled for June 18, may have to take place on an earlier date because, if it comes to a second round of voting for president, it may coincide with the Muslim feast of Kurban Bayrami (which spans the period from June 28 to July 2, 2023 that are non-working days).

The opposition, too, insists on an earlier polling day because the new Election Code, which supposedly serves the interests of the ruling People's Alliance, will enter into force after April 6. Scheduling early elections requires a Grand National Assembly resolution passed by a majority of at least 400 votes. 

A meeting between Erdogan and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) Chairman Devlet Bahceli two days before the New Year prompted media speculation that the voting may be set for April 30. AKP Deputy Chairman Hamza Dag denied this in a televised interview but, notably, did not rule out the possibility of the President dissolving parliament and scheduling early elections. 

For the time being, the only candidate for president in the forthcoming elections is the incumbent, and the People's Alliance relies on his strong personality.

The six opposition parties (Kemal Kilicdaroglu's Republican People's Party, Meral Aksener's Good Party, Temel Karamollaoglu's Felicity Party, Gultekin Yusal's Democratic Party, Ali Babacan's Democracy and Progress Party, and Ahmet Davutoglu's Future Party) prioritize holding early elections, restoring the parliamentary form of government, and nominating a joint presidential candidate. These issues are considered to be fateful for the future of both the country and the political leaders.

The opposition leaders are non-committal about who will run against Erdogan for president. Aksener allegedly opposes a Kilicdaroglu bid and would rather back Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu or Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas.

Karamollaoglu told the Haberturk newspaper that the six leaders will discuss the presidential nomination when they meet on January 5. He is afraid that Erdogan would "bulldoze" Imamoglu or Yavas if they stand, but nevertheless does not expect the incumbent to garner more than 42-43% of the votes. The People's Alliance will probably lose their majority in parliament, according to the Felicity Party leader. "Under the circumstances, the Constitution can be amended quickly, but the opposition must come to terms," he argued.

"Even though the Government and the opposition both reckon to win the presidential elections as well as a majority in parliament, the electorate may demand power sharing from them. In this context, if Erdogan secures the presidency he may lose his majority in the Grand National Assembly. In this case, while the President will still have power to issue decrees, Parliament will be empowered to control these decisions or to enact legislation on the same matters," commented analyst Ayse Sayin.