site.btaWhy Is Erdogan in a Hurry with Parliamentary Elections that Are Crucial to His Future?

Just yesterday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan implied that the forthcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkiye will be held on May 14, rather than June 18 as scheduled. Speaking to the parliamentary group of his Justice and Development Party (AK Party), he referred to the first ‘free’ elections in Turkiye.

"Our nation will say 'enough' to these coup appreciators, this ambitious but incompetent Table of Six, on the same day after 73 years," Erdogan said of the six-party alliance looking to topple him and is planning to nominate a joint candidate. 

In the elections held on May 14, 1950, the Democratic Party prevailed against the Republican People's Party (CHP), which had ruled Turkiye for 27 years since its founding – and which is the largest party in today's opposition alliance.

The Table of Six includes the Republican People’s Party, the nationalist Good Party, the conservative Islamist Felicity Party, the Future Party, the Democracy and Progress Party and the Democrat Party.

Erdogan’s statement was promptly repeated as the “good news that the elections of the century will be held on May 14” by AK Party floor leader Muhammet Emin Akbasoglu.

In turn, CHP leader seconded with "There will be elections on May 14. We will go to the polls. With Allah's permission, we will make a good start. We will ensure the rise of Turkiye."

While regular elections had to be held on June 18 and until recently Erdogan and his ally in the Republican Alliance, Devlet Bahceli, adamantly rejected the opportunity for extraordinary elections, at the end of last year they began to hint at a possible earlier date for the vote.

Arguments in favour of earlier elections

According to some observers, one such argument may be that June elections would coincide with the annual Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca and. Several million Turkish nationals will definitely leave the country at the end of May, most of them firm Erdogan supporters.

University entrance exams are also held in June and are worth considering as some 7 million will go to the polls for the first time this year.

Erdogan’s critics, though, say the main reasons that made the President and Bahceli hurry are the deteriorating economic situation and the galloping inflation that will ‘devour’ Erdogan’s salary raises at the end of 2022. 

Last but not least (if the elections are on June 18) are the forecasts for a possible runoff of the presidential vote, which would coincide with the Eid al-Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice), the larger of the two main holidays celebrated in Islam, which this year begins on June 28.

What follows?

According to the Turkish Constitution, there are two ways elections could be pulled forward to May 14.

The first one is a resolution of parliament. To call for snap polls, however, the parliament needs a three-fifths majority, i.e., 360 votes in the 600-strong legislature. The People’s Alliance (AKP and its smaller electoral ally Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP) have 335 seats. This means that Erdogan would have to find 25 votes among the opposition, which may be difficult as most parties would not support him. Then again, he could dissolve the parliament, which is expected on March 8, and the official 60-day pre-election period following its gazetting on March 9. The first Sunday after this period is May 14, the Turktime wrote.

Just a couple of days ago, Bahceli called upon the opposition National Alliance to “get this business completed in May”.

AK Party deputy leader Hamza Dag even pointed out that although the elections would be scheduled for an earlier date they would not be extraordinary, for they would still be held in 2023.

So Turkiye has entered the elections orbit, one that may probably prove the most important for the future of Erdogan’s rule and the Turkish people in the last decades for that matter.